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Anzhi vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
5/20/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Anzhi68%
×Draw18%
Inter Cherkessk14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
2.42
Inter Cherkessk
1.00

Anzhi creates 142% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Anzhi
1.72
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Anzhi
1.06
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
86%
Anzhi or Inter Cherkessk
82%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
32%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
46%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
91%
Anzhi 2+ goals
69%
Anzhi 3+ goals
43%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
63%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
26%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
83%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 1.72 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.42

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Anzhi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Anzhi scores more
68%
level
18%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
14%

Anzhi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Anzhi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzhi vs Inter Cherkessk

Anzhi beat Inter Cherkessk 6-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Makhachkala.