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Anzhi vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
8/15/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Anzhi47%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Stavropol28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
1.55
Dinamo Stavropol
1.14

Anzhi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Anzhi
1.72
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Anzhi
1.06
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
72%
Anzhi or Dinamo Stavropol
75%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
53%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
79%
Anzhi 2+ goals
46%
Anzhi 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 1.72 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Anzhi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Anzhi scores more
47%
level
25%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
28%

Anzhi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Anzhi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzhi vs Dinamo Stavropol

Anzhi beat Dinamo Stavropol 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Makhachkala.