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Anzhi vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
4/6/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anzhi23%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moscow51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
0.95
Dinamo Moscow
1.54

Dinamo Moscow creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Anzhi
0.53
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Anzhi
1.67
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
49%
Anzhi or Dinamo Moscow
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
77%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
8%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
61%
Anzhi 2+ goals
25%
Anzhi 3+ goals
7%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
31%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 0.53 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.95

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Anzhi scores more
23%
level
26%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
51%

Dinamo Moscow at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzhi vs Dinamo Moscow

Anzhi and Dinamo Moscow drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Makhachkala.