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Antwerp vs RWDM — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RWDM
RWDM
9/23/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Antwerp57%
×Draw22%
RWDM21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.97
RWDM
1.11

Antwerp creates 77% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 19 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.69
RWDM
1.05

allows per match

Antwerp
1.17
RWDM
2.26

finishing

Antwerp+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
79%
Antwerp or RWDM
78%
Draw or RWDM
43%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
34%
RWDM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
86%
Antwerp 2+ goals
58%
Antwerp 3+ goals
31%
RWDM 1+ goals
67%
RWDM 2+ goals
30%
RWDM 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
73%
RWDM (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

RWDM away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.69 + RWDM defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.97

RWDM attack 1.05 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Antwerp scores more
57%
level
22%
RWDM scores more
21%

Antwerp at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antwerp vs RWDM

Antwerp and RWDM drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Deurne.