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Antwerp vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2025

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
V. Janssen 58'
D. Odoi 47'
E. Banzuzi 90+6'
E. Pletinckx 56'
2/22/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 27Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Antwerp47%
×Draw25%
OH Leuven28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.56
OH Leuven
1.15

Antwerp creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.36
OH Leuven
1.13

allows per match

Antwerp
1.17
OH Leuven
1.75

finishing

Antwerp+0.07on par
OH Leuven-0.22scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
72%
Antwerp or OH Leuven
75%
Draw or OH Leuven
53%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
24%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
79%
Antwerp 2+ goals
46%
Antwerp 3+ goals
21%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
68%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
32%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
62%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 14 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.36 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

OH Leuven attack 1.13 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Antwerp scores more
47%
level
25%
OH Leuven scores more
28%

Antwerp at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
V. JanssenAntwerpAntwerp · F
7.7

Match Events

16'
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
22'
Birger Verstraete
38'
Gyrano Kerk
47'
D. Odoi↳ G. Kerk
56'
E. Pletinckx↳ T. Verlinden
58'
V. Janssen↳ D. Praet
63'
M. Benítez← J. Riedewald
63'
K. Corbanie← D. Odoi
71'
Zeno Van Den Bosch
71'
W. George← L. Zeefuik
71'
J. Mijatović← T. Verlinden
79'
A. Valencia← D. Praet
79'
M. Bayo← T. Chery
86'
Olivier Deman
86'
Y. Maziz← E. Pletinckx
87'
Óscar Gil← M. Osifo
87'
W. Balikwisha← B. Verstraete
90+3'
Jovan Mijatović
90'
K. Young← G. Kerk
90+6'
E. Banzuzi

Possession

57%Antwerp

Shots

22Antwerp

Pass accuracy

53%Antwerp

Statistics

AntwerpOH
Overview
57%Possession43%
22Total Shots10
1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.92
7Corners4
17Fouls12
Shots
22Total Shots10
8On Target5
10Off Target4
4Blocked1
11Inside Box7
11Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
408Total Passes301
342Accurate Passes225
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
0.59Goals Prevented0.59
Discipline
17Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Jupiler Pro League: Antwerp 2–2 OH Leuven

Antwerp and OH Leuven drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Odoi (47'), E. Pletinckx (56'), V. Janssen (58'), E. Banzuzi (90+6').

Antwerp controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Deurne.