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Antoniano vs Écija — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Antoniano
Antoniano
FT
3 – 0
Écija
Écija
2/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Antoniano75%
×Draw17%
Écija8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antoniano
2.21
Écija
0.55

Antoniano creates 302% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 18 away

creates per match

Antoniano
1.43
Écija
0.00

allows per match

Antoniano
1.09
Écija
3.00

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par
Écija+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Écija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw
92%
Antoniano or Écija
83%
Draw or Écija
25%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+
51%
Écija wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals
89%
Antoniano 2+ goals
65%
Antoniano 3+ goals
38%
Écija 1+ goals
42%
Écija 2+ goals
11%
Écija 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)
91%
Écija (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Écija away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Écija attack 0.00 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Antoniano scores more
75%
level
17%
Écija scores more
8%

Antoniano at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Antoniano 3–0 Écija

Antoniano beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.