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Antoniano vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Antoniano
Antoniano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Antoniano43%
×Draw27%
Córdoba II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antoniano
1.39
Córdoba II
1.11

Antoniano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

creates per match

Antoniano
1.43
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Antoniano
1.09
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw
70%
Antoniano or Córdoba II
73%
Draw or Córdoba II
57%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+
20%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals
75%
Antoniano 2+ goals
40%
Antoniano 3+ goals
16%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
67%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
30%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)
59%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Antoniano scores more
43%
level
27%
Córdoba II scores more
30%

Antoniano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antoniano vs Córdoba II

Antoniano and Córdoba II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.