Antoniano 1–1 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Antoniano

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ciudad de Lucena

10/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Antoniano38%

×Draw29%

Ciudad de Lucena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntonianoExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.08

Antoniano

1.17

Ciudad de Lucena

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

1.43

creates per match

1.06

1.09

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Antoniano

1.43

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Antoniano

1.09

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw

67%

Antoniano or Ciudad de Lucena

71%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

62%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+

16%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals

69%

Antoniano 2+ goals

33%

Antoniano 3+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

66%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

29%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)

53%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Antoniano scores more

38%

level

29%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

33%

Antoniano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff