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Antoniano vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Antoniano
Antoniano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arcos
Arcos
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Antoniano52%
×Draw26%
Arcos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antoniano
1.52
Arcos
0.90

Antoniano creates 69% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

creates per match

Antoniano
1.43
Arcos
0.71

allows per match

Antoniano
1.09
Arcos
1.61

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par
Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw
78%
Antoniano or Arcos
74%
Draw or Arcos
48%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+
27%
Arcos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals
78%
Antoniano 2+ goals
45%
Antoniano 3+ goals
20%
Arcos 1+ goals
59%
Arcos 2+ goals
23%
Arcos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)
70%
Arcos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Arcos attack 0.71 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Antoniano scores more
52%
level
26%
Arcos scores more
22%

Antoniano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antoniano vs Arcos

Antoniano beat Arcos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.