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Antofagasta vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2026

Antofagasta
Antofagasta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
3/10/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 3Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Antofagasta52%
×Draw25%
Universidad de Concepcion23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antofagasta
1.59
Universidad de Concepcion
0.98

Antofagasta creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 77 away

creates per match

Antofagasta
1.80
Universidad de Concepcion
0.99

allows per match

Antofagasta
0.98
Universidad de Concepcion
1.38

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw
77%
Antofagasta or Universidad de Concepcion
75%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
48%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+
27%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals
80%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
47%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
21%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
62%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
26%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)
69%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Antofagasta scores more
52%
level
25%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
23%

Antofagasta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antofagasta vs Universidad de Concepcion

Antofagasta beat Universidad de Concepcion 3-0 in Primera B on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Antofagasta.