Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Antofagasta vs Union San Felipe — Primera B 2026

Antofagasta
Antofagasta
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
4/7/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 7Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Antofagasta54%
×Draw24%
Union San Felipe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antofagasta
1.69
Union San Felipe
0.99

Antofagasta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 114 away

creates per match

Antofagasta
1.80
Union San Felipe
1.00

allows per match

Antofagasta
0.98
Union San Felipe
1.57

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw
78%
Antofagasta or Union San Felipe
76%
Draw or Union San Felipe
46%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+
29%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals
82%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
50%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
24%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
63%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
26%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)
71%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + Union San Felipe defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Antofagasta scores more
54%
level
24%
Union San Felipe scores more
22%

Antofagasta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antofagasta vs Union San Felipe

Antofagasta beat Union San Felipe 4-1 in Primera B on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Antofagasta.