Antofagasta 1–2 San Luis: Result & Stats

Antofagasta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Luis

7/13/2025

Primera B · Round 16Estadio Regional de Antofagasta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Antofagasta53%

×Draw25%

San Luis23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntofagastaExpected goals in this matchSan Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.99

Antofagasta

1.65

San Luis

0.99

Antofagasta creates 67% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 111 away

1.80

creates per match

1.01

0.98

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Antofagasta

1.80

San Luis

1.01

allows per match

Antofagasta

0.98

San Luis

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par

San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw

77%

Antofagasta or San Luis

75%

Draw or San Luis

47%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+

28%

San Luis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals

81%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

49%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

23%

San Luis 1+ goals

63%

San Luis 2+ goals

26%

San Luis 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

70%

San Luis (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

San Luis attack 1.01 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Antofagasta scores more

53%

level

25%

San Luis scores more

23%

Antofagasta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff