Antofagasta 0–1 D. La Serena: Result & Stats

Antofagasta

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

D. La Serena

J. Sánchez 30'

10/15/2023

Primera B · Round 30Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Antofagasta46%

×Draw26%

D. La Serena28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntofagastaExpected goals in this matchD. La Serena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Antofagasta

1.48

D. La Serena

1.09

Antofagasta creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 52 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Antofagasta

1.80

D. La Serena

1.21

allows per match

Antofagasta

0.98

D. La Serena

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par

D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

D. La Serena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw

72%

Antofagasta or D. La Serena

74%

Draw or D. La Serena

54%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+

23%

D. La Serena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals

77%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

43%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

19%

D. La Serena 1+ goals

66%

D. La Serena 2+ goals

30%

D. La Serena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

62%

D. La Serena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + D. La Serena defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

D. La Serena attack 1.21 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Antofagasta scores more

46%

level

26%

D. La Serena scores more

28%

Antofagasta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Sánchez

44'

S. Cordero

46'

B. Pérez← S. Ubilla

46'

M. Morales← S. Cordero

60'

M. G. Morales Olivares

62'

M. Rodríguez← L. Carreño

65'

G. Harding← B. Hurtado

70'

M. Larenas← M. Maluenda

77'

F. Saavedra← M. Cortés

77'

M. Navarrete← J. Sánchez

84'

M. Sánchez← F. Alvarado

84'

F. Díaz← G. Reyes

84'

J. Reyes← F. Espinoza

90+3'

F. Diaz

90+4'

R. Contreras

90+4'

Z. Lopez

Antofagasta

D.

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Armijo

46'▲B. Pérez←▼S. Ubilla

46'▲M. Morales←▼S. Cordero

65'▲G. Harding←▼B. Hurtado

70'▲M. Larenas←▼M. Maluenda

84'▲M. Sánchez←▼F. Alvarado

Antofagasta substitutes

PérezMoralesHardingLarenasSánchezCaveroCisternas

Manager: J. Luvera

62'▲M. Rodríguez←▼L. Carreño

77'▲F. Saavedra←▼M. Cortés

77'▲M. Navarrete←▼J. Sánchez

84'▲F. Díaz←▼G. Reyes

84'▲J. Reyes←▼F. Espinoza

D. La Serena substitutes

RodríguezSaavedraNavarreteDíazReyesEspinozaTapia

Primera B: Antofagasta 0–1 D. La Serena

D. La Serena beat Antofagasta 1-0 in Primera B on October 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Sánchez (30').

The match was played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Antofagasta.

Antofagasta vs D. La Serena — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Antofagasta 0–1 D. La Serena