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Antioquia vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
CANC
20:00
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
4/7/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia48%
×Draw24%
Puerto Golfito28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.74
Puerto Golfito
1.27

Antioquia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 84 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
72%
Antioquia or Puerto Golfito
76%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
52%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
26%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
82%
Antioquia 2+ goals
52%
Antioquia 3+ goals
25%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
72%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
36%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
63%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.74

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Antioquia scores more
48%
level
24%
Puerto Golfito scores more
28%

Antioquia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antioquia vs Puerto Golfito — Match Preview

Antioquia face Puerto Golfito on April 7, 2024 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.