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Antioquia vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
10/13/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia43%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.57
Aserri FC
1.35

Antioquia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 106 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
67%
Antioquia or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
57%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
21%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
79%
Antioquia 2+ goals
46%
Antioquia 3+ goals
21%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
74%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
39%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
56%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Antioquia scores more
43%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
33%

Antioquia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Antioquia 0–1 Aserri FC

Aserri FC beat Antioquia 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.