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Antioquia vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
10/29/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia47%
×Draw24%
AS Puma Generalena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.70
AS Puma Generalena
1.27

Antioquia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 74 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
71%
Antioquia or AS Puma Generalena
76%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
53%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
25%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
82%
Antioquia 2+ goals
51%
Antioquia 3+ goals
24%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
72%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
36%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
62%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Antioquia scores more
47%
level
24%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
29%

Antioquia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antioquia vs AS Puma Generalena

Antioquia beat AS Puma Generalena 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.