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Antioquia vs AD Cofutpa — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
3/26/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia41%
×Draw25%
AD Cofutpa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.54
AD Cofutpa
1.38

Antioquia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 121 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
AD Cofutpa
1.14

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
AD Cofutpa
1.62

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

AD Cofutpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
66%
Antioquia or AD Cofutpa
75%
Draw or AD Cofutpa
59%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
20%
AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
79%
Antioquia 2+ goals
45%
Antioquia 3+ goals
20%
AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
75%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
40%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
55%
AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

AD Cofutpa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

AD Cofutpa attack 1.14 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Antioquia scores more
41%
level
25%
AD Cofutpa scores more
34%

Antioquia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Antioquia 0–5 AD Cofutpa

AD Cofutpa beat Antioquia 5-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.