Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Antigua GFC vs Xinabajul — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFCadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Xinabajul
Xinabajul
4/29/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Pensativo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Antigua GFC60%
×Draw22%
Xinabajul17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
1.86
Xinabajul
0.88

Antigua GFC creates 111% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 59 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Xinabajul
0.90

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Xinabajul
1.88

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Xinabajul+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Xinabajul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
83%
Antigua GFC or Xinabajul
78%
Draw or Xinabajul
40%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
35%
Xinabajul wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
84%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
55%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
28%
Xinabajul 1+ goals
59%
Xinabajul 2+ goals
22%
Xinabajul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
78%
Xinabajul (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Xinabajul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Xinabajul defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Xinabajul attack 0.90 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
60%
level
22%
Xinabajul scores more
17%

Antigua GFC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Antigua GFC 2–1 Xinabajul

Antigua GFC beat Xinabajul 2-1 in Liga Nacional on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pensativo in Antigua.