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Antigua GFC vs Malacateco — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malacateco
Malacateco
11/30/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 22Estadio Pensativo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Antigua GFC59%
×Draw24%
Malacateco17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
1.73
Malacateco
0.81

Antigua GFC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 145 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Malacateco
0.78

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Malacateco
1.62

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Malacateco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
83%
Antigua GFC or Malacateco
76%
Draw or Malacateco
41%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
33%
Malacateco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
82%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
52%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
25%
Malacateco 1+ goals
56%
Malacateco 2+ goals
19%
Malacateco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
77%
Malacateco (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
59%
level
24%
Malacateco scores more
17%

Antigua GFC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antigua GFC vs Malacateco

Antigua GFC beat Malacateco 2-0 in Liga Nacional on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Pensativo in Antigua Guatemala.