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Antigua GFC vs Iztapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Iztapa
Iztapa
11/6/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Pensativo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Antigua GFC62%
×Draw21%
Iztapa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
1.98
Iztapa
0.90

Antigua GFC creates 120% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 82 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Iztapa
0.95

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Iztapa
2.12

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Iztapa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Iztapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
84%
Antigua GFC or Iztapa
79%
Draw or Iztapa
38%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
38%
Iztapa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
86%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
59%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
31%
Iztapa 1+ goals
59%
Iztapa 2+ goals
23%
Iztapa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
79%
Iztapa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Iztapa away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Iztapa defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Iztapa attack 0.95 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
62%
level
21%
Iztapa scores more
16%

Antigua GFC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Antigua GFC 4–1 Iztapa

Antigua GFC beat Iztapa 4-1 in Liga Nacional on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Pensativo in Antigua.