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Antigua GFC vs Coatepecano IB — Liga Nacional 2019

Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coatepecano IB
Coatepecano IB
3/16/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 11Estadio Pensativo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Antigua GFC68%
×Draw20%
Coatepecano IB12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antigua GFC
2.04
Coatepecano IB
0.71

Antigua GFC creates 187% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 16 away

creates per match

Antigua GFC
1.84
Coatepecano IB
0.56

allows per match

Antigua GFC
0.85
Coatepecano IB
2.25

finishing

Antigua GFC+0.00on par
Coatepecano IB+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antigua GFC ↓

Coatepecano IB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antigua GFC or draw
88%
Antigua GFC or Coatepecano IB
80%
Draw or Coatepecano IB
32%

Winning margin

Antigua GFC wins by 2+
43%
Coatepecano IB wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Antigua GFC 1+ goals
87%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
60%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
33%
Coatepecano IB 1+ goals
51%
Coatepecano IB 2+ goals
16%
Coatepecano IB 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
85%
Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antigua GFC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.85 · 158 matches

Coatepecano IB away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antigua GFC attack 1.84 + Coatepecano IB defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Coatepecano IB attack 0.56 + Antigua GFC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Antigua GFC scores more
68%
level
20%
Coatepecano IB scores more
12%

Antigua GFC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Antigua GFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Antigua GFC 4–0 Coatepecano IB

Antigua GFC beat Coatepecano IB 4-0 in Liga Nacional on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pensativo in Antigua.