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Antequera vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Antequera65%
×Draw21%
Melilla CD14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.99
Melilla CD
0.79

Antequera creates 152% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
86%
Antequera or Melilla CD
79%
Draw or Melilla CD
35%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
40%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
86%
Antequera 2+ goals
59%
Antequera 3+ goals
32%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
55%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
19%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
82%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.99

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Antequera scores more
65%
level
21%
Melilla CD scores more
14%

Antequera at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Melilla CD

Antequera beat Melilla CD 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.