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Antequera vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Antequera40%
×Draw28%
Málaga II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.24
Málaga II
1.06

Antequera creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 92 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
69%
Antequera or Málaga II
72%
Draw or Málaga II
60%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
18%
Málaga II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
71%
Antequera 2+ goals
35%
Antequera 3+ goals
13%
Málaga II 1+ goals
65%
Málaga II 2+ goals
29%
Málaga II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
56%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Antequera scores more
40%
level
28%
Málaga II scores more
31%

Antequera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Málaga II

Antequera beat Málaga II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.