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Antequera vs Loja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
CANC
00:00
Loja
Loja
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Antequera59%
×Draw23%
Loja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.81
Loja
0.87

Antequera creates 108% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
Loja
0.97

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
Loja
2.24

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
82%
Antequera or Loja
77%
Draw or Loja
41%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
34%
Loja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
84%
Antequera 2+ goals
54%
Antequera 3+ goals
27%
Loja 1+ goals
58%
Loja 2+ goals
22%
Loja 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
77%
Loja (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Loja attack 0.97 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Antequera scores more
59%
level
23%
Loja scores more
18%

Antequera at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antequera vs Loja — Match Preview

Antequera face Loja on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Antequera host Loja at Estadio El Maulí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.