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Antequera vs Estepona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estepona
Estepona
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Antequera55%
×Draw27%
Estepona18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.44
Estepona
0.71

Antequera creates 103% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
Estepona
0.64

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
Estepona
1.50

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Estepona+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Estepona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
82%
Antequera or Estepona
73%
Draw or Estepona
45%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
28%
Estepona wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
76%
Antequera 2+ goals
42%
Antequera 3+ goals
18%
Estepona 1+ goals
51%
Estepona 2+ goals
16%
Estepona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
75%
Estepona (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Estepona away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + Estepona defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Estepona attack 0.64 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Antequera scores more
55%
level
27%
Estepona scores more
18%

Antequera at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Estepona

Estepona beat Antequera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.