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Antequera vs Cordoba — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cordoba
Cordoba
3/3/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Antequera34%
×Draw26%
Cordoba41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.29
Cordoba
1.44

Cordoba creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Cordoba
1.68

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Cordoba
1.05

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
59%
Antequera or Cordoba
74%
Draw or Cordoba
66%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
15%
Cordoba wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
72%
Antequera 2+ goals
37%
Antequera 3+ goals
14%
Cordoba 1+ goals
76%
Cordoba 2+ goals
42%
Cordoba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
45%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cordoba attack 1.68 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Antequera scores more
34%
level
26%
Cordoba scores more
41%

Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Cordoba

Cordoba beat Antequera 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.