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Antequera vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
1/20/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera42%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.40
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

Antequera creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
68%
Antequera or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
58%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
75%
Antequera 2+ goals
41%
Antequera 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Antequera scores more
42%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
32%

Antequera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Antequera 1 – 0 Atlético Madrid II

Antequera beat Atlético Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.