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Antequera vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
10/1/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera48%
×Draw26%
Atlético Baleares26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.48
Atlético Baleares
1.00

Antequera creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
74%
Antequera or Atlético Baleares
74%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
52%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
77%
Antequera 2+ goals
43%
Antequera 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
65%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Antequera scores more
48%
level
26%
Atlético Baleares scores more
26%

Antequera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs Atlético Baleares

Antequera beat Atlético Baleares 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.