Antequera 1–3 Algeciras: Result & Stats

Antequera

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Algeciras

3/22/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Antequera45%

×Draw26%

Algeciras29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntequeraExpected goals in this matchAlgeciras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.12

Antequera

1.48

Algeciras

1.12

Antequera creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.54

creates per match

1.05

1.19

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Antequera

1.54

Algeciras

1.05

allows per match

Antequera

1.19

Algeciras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par

Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

Algeciras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Antequera or draw

71%

Antequera or Algeciras

74%

Draw or Algeciras

55%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+

22%

Algeciras wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals

77%

Antequera 2+ goals

43%

Antequera 3+ goals

19%

Algeciras 1+ goals

67%

Algeciras 2+ goals

31%

Algeciras 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)

61%

Algeciras (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Antequera scores more

45%

level

26%

Algeciras scores more

29%

Antequera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff