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Antequera vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
12/13/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Antequera43%
×Draw27%
AD Ceuta FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.38
AD Ceuta FC
1.09

Antequera creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.54
AD Ceuta FC
1.00

allows per match

Antequera
1.19
AD Ceuta FC
1.21

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
70%
Antequera or AD Ceuta FC
73%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
57%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
21%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
75%
Antequera 2+ goals
40%
Antequera 3+ goals
16%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
66%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
30%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
59%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.54 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Antequera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Antequera scores more
43%
level
27%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
30%

Antequera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs AD Ceuta FC

Antequera and AD Ceuta FC drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.