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Antalyaspor vs Yomraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yomraspor
Yomraspor
10/30/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAntalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Antalyaspor54%
×Draw24%
Yomraspor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antalyaspor
1.73
Yomraspor
1.02

Antalyaspor creates 70% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

Antalyaspor
2.08
Yomraspor
1.00

allows per match

Antalyaspor
1.04
Yomraspor
1.38

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par
Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Yomraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw
78%
Antalyaspor or Yomraspor
76%
Draw or Yomraspor
46%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+
30%
Yomraspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals
82%
Antalyaspor 2+ goals
52%
Antalyaspor 3+ goals
25%
Yomraspor 1+ goals
64%
Yomraspor 2+ goals
27%
Yomraspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)
71%
Yomraspor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Antalyaspor scores more
54%
level
24%
Yomraspor scores more
22%

Antalyaspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Antalyaspor 0–0 Yomraspor

Antalyaspor and Yomraspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2018.

The match was played at Antalya Stadyumu in Antalya.