Antalyaspor 3–0 Yeni Orduspor: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yeni Orduspor

11/1/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundCorendon Airlines Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Antalyaspor55%

×Draw22%

Yeni Orduspor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchYeni Orduspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.22

Antalyaspor

1.99

Yeni Orduspor

1.22

Antalyaspor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

2.08

creates per match

1.40

1.04

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Antalyaspor

2.08

Yeni Orduspor

1.40

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.04

Yeni Orduspor

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Yeni Orduspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

77%

Antalyaspor or Yeni Orduspor

78%

Draw or Yeni Orduspor

45%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

32%

Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

86%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

59%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

32%

Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals

70%

Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals

34%

Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

70%

Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.99

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

55%

level

22%

Yeni Orduspor scores more

23%

Antalyaspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff