Antalyaspor 2–1 Samsunspor: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Samsunspor

A. Gaich 84'

S. Dikmen 45'

Z. Yavru 52'

4/5/2025

League #203 · Round 30Corendon Airlines Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Antalyaspor49%

×Draw22%

Samsunspor28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.40

Antalyaspor

1.90

Samsunspor

1.40

Antalyaspor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

1.50

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Antalyaspor

1.50

Samsunspor

1.29

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.50

Samsunspor

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Samsunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

72%

Antalyaspor or Samsunspor

78%

Draw or Samsunspor

51%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

28%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

85%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

56%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

29%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

75%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

41%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

63%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 1.50 + Samsunspor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Samsunspor attack 1.29 + Antalyaspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

49%

level

22%

Samsunspor scores more

28%

Antalyaspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Z. Yavru

Samsunspor · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Y. Çift← Y. Bennasser

14'

Marius Mouandilmadji

27'

Sam LarssonGoal cancelled

45'

S. Dikmen↳ G. Vural

46'

F. Tait← K. Schindler

49'

Braian Samudio

52'

Z. Yavru

63'

M. Djenepo← B. Samudio

64'

A. Gaich← S. Dikmen

67'

B. Balcı← M. Yılmaz

81'

A. Dursun← G. Vural

81'

O. Petrusenko← S. Larsson

83'

84'

87'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntalyasporSamsunspor

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots12

2.04Expected Goals (xG)0.86

3Corners1

18Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target4

6Off Target5

0Blocked3

11Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

423Total Passes399

349Accurate Passes326

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

18Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4