Antalyaspor 1–0 Manisa F.K.: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manisa F.K.

12/20/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundCorendon Airlines Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Antalyaspor64%

×Draw18%

Manisa F.K.18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchManisa F.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.27

Antalyaspor

2.54

Manisa F.K.

1.27

Antalyaspor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

2.08

creates per match

1.50

1.04

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Antalyaspor

2.08

Manisa F.K.

1.50

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.04

Manisa F.K.

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Manisa F.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

82%

Antalyaspor or Manisa F.K.

82%

Draw or Manisa F.K.

36%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

43%

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

92%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

72%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

46%

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

72%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

36%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

78%

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Manisa F.K. defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Manisa F.K. attack 1.50 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

64%

level

18%

Manisa F.K. scores more

18%

Antalyaspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff