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Antalyaspor vs Göztepe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Göztepe
Göztepe
1/15/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsAntalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Antalyaspor42%
×Draw23%
Göztepe35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antalyaspor
1.71
Göztepe
1.56

Antalyaspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

creates per match

Antalyaspor
2.08
Göztepe
2.08

allows per match

Antalyaspor
1.04
Göztepe
1.33

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw
65%
Antalyaspor or Göztepe
77%
Draw or Göztepe
58%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+
22%
Göztepe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals
82%
Antalyaspor 2+ goals
51%
Antalyaspor 3+ goals
24%
Göztepe 1+ goals
79%
Göztepe 2+ goals
46%
Göztepe 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)
54%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Antalyaspor scores more
42%
level
23%
Göztepe scores more
35%

Antalyaspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Antalyaspor 3–3 Göztepe

Antalyaspor and Göztepe drew 3-3 in Türkiye Kupası on January 15, 2019.

The match was played at Antalya Stadyumu in Antalya.