Antalyaspor 0–2 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Beşiktaş

V. Rosier 30'

Josef de Souza 3'

5/18/2021

Türkiye Kupası · FinalGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Antalyaspor45%

×Draw25%

Beşiktaş29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Antalyaspor

1.54

Beşiktaş

1.19

Antalyaspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

2.08

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Antalyaspor

2.08

Beşiktaş

1.33

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.04

Beşiktaş

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

71%

Antalyaspor or Beşiktaş

75%

Draw or Beşiktaş

55%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

23%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

79%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

45%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

20%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

70%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

33%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

61%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 2.08 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Beşiktaş attack 1.33 + Antalyaspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

45%

level

25%

Beşiktaş scores more

29%

Antalyaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Ghezzal

Beşiktaş · M

8.7

Match Events

3'

Josef de Souza

30'

V. Rosier↳ R. Ghezzal

46'

64'

65'

65'

70'

S. Sam← B. Balcı

73'

Fedor Kudryashov

78'

B. Mensah← A. Hutchinson

79'

D. Orgill← Amilton

79'

U. Akyol← N. Şahin

85'

Naldo

86'

R. Yılmaz← R. Ghezzal

87'

Utku Yuvakuran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntalyasporBeşiktaş

Overview

48%Possession52%

25Total Shots13

12Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots13

6On Target5

12Off Target5

7Blocked3

15Inside Box7

10Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

460Total Passes501

389Accurate Passes431

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1