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Ansbach vs Greuther Fürth II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ansbach
Ansbach
CANC
13:00
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
2/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ansbach47%
×Draw19%
Greuther Fürth II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ansbach
2.48
Greuther Fürth II
2.07

Ansbach creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ansbach
3.15
Greuther Fürth II
2.29

allows per match

Ansbach
1.85
Greuther Fürth II
1.82

finishing

Ansbach+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansbach ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Ansbach or draw
67%
Ansbach or Greuther Fürth II
81%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
53%

Winning margin

Ansbach wins by 2+
29%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ansbach 1+ goals
92%
Ansbach 2+ goals
70%
Ansbach 3+ goals
44%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
87%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
61%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ansbach (draw refunded)
59%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansbach at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansbach attack 3.15 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.48

Greuther Fürth II attack 2.29 + Ansbach defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ansbach scores more
47%
level
19%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
33%

Ansbach at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ansbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ansbach vs Greuther Fürth II — Match Preview

Ansbach face Greuther Fürth II on February 17, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ansbach host Greuther Fürth II at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.