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Ansbach vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Ansbach
Ansbach
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
11/11/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 20Xaver-Bertsch-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ansbach57%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Bamberg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ansbach
1.86
Eintracht Bamberg
1.02

Ansbach creates 82% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ansbach
1.72
Eintracht Bamberg
0.82

allows per match

Ansbach
1.23
Eintracht Bamberg
2.00

finishing

Ansbach+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansbach ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ansbach or draw
79%
Ansbach or Eintracht Bamberg
77%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
43%

Winning margin

Ansbach wins by 2+
33%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ansbach 1+ goals
84%
Ansbach 2+ goals
55%
Ansbach 3+ goals
28%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
64%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
27%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ansbach (draw refunded)
74%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansbach at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansbach attack 1.72 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + Ansbach defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ansbach scores more
57%
level
23%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
21%

Ansbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ansbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ansbach vs Eintracht Bamberg

Ansbach and Eintracht Bamberg drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Xaver-Bertsch-Sportpark in Ansbach.