Ansan Greeners 1–0 Seongnam FC: Result & Stats

Ansan Greeners

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Seongnam FC

5/31/2025

K League 2 · Round 14Ansan WA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ansan Greeners32%

×Draw27%

Seongnam FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ansan GreenersExpected goals in this matchSeongnam FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.30

Ansan Greeners

1.13

Seongnam FC

1.30

Seongnam FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 84 away

0.99

creates per match

1.13

1.48

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ansan Greeners

0.99

Seongnam FC

1.13

allows per match

Ansan Greeners

1.48

Seongnam FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ansan Greeners+0.00on par

Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansan Greeners ↓

Seongnam FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ansan Greeners or draw

60%

Ansan Greeners or Seongnam FC

73%

Draw or Seongnam FC

68%

Winning margin

Ansan Greeners wins by 2+

13%

Seongnam FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ansan Greeners 1+ goals

68%

Ansan Greeners 2+ goals

31%

Ansan Greeners 3+ goals

11%

Seongnam FC 1+ goals

73%

Seongnam FC 2+ goals

37%

Seongnam FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)

44%

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansan Greeners at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 154 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansan Greeners attack 0.99 + Seongnam FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Seongnam FC attack 1.13 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ansan Greeners scores more

32%

level

27%

Seongnam FC scores more

40%

Seongnam FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff