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Anorthosis vs Othellos — 1. Division 2019

Anorthosis
Anorthosis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Othellos
Othellos
12/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 15Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Anorthosis52%
×Draw22%
Othellos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anorthosis
1.92
Othellos
1.29

Anorthosis creates 49% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 20 away

creates per match

Anorthosis
1.58
Othellos
1.45

allows per match

Anorthosis
1.12
Othellos
2.25

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par
Othellos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Othellos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw
74%
Anorthosis or Othellos
78%
Draw or Othellos
48%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+
30%
Othellos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals
85%
Anorthosis 2+ goals
57%
Anorthosis 3+ goals
30%
Othellos 1+ goals
72%
Othellos 2+ goals
37%
Othellos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)
67%
Othellos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 118 matches

Othellos away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.58 + Othellos defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.92

Othellos attack 1.45 + Anorthosis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Anorthosis scores more
52%
level
22%
Othellos scores more
26%

Anorthosis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Anorthosis 2–1 Othellos

Anorthosis beat Othellos 2-1 in 1. Division on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos in Larnaca.