Anorthosis 1–0 Ethnikos Achna: Result & Stats

Anorthosis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ethnikos Achna

1/11/2026

1. Division · Round 17Antonis Papadopoulos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Anorthosis51%

×Draw24%

Ethnikos Achna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnorthosisExpected goals in this matchEthnikos Achna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.17

Anorthosis

1.76

Ethnikos Achna

1.17

Anorthosis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 101 away

1.58

creates per match

1.22

1.12

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Anorthosis

1.58

Ethnikos Achna

1.22

allows per match

Anorthosis

1.12

Ethnikos Achna

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Ethnikos Achna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Ethnikos Achna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw

75%

Anorthosis or Ethnikos Achna

76%

Draw or Ethnikos Achna

49%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+

28%

Ethnikos Achna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals

83%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

52%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

26%

Ethnikos Achna 1+ goals

69%

Ethnikos Achna 2+ goals

33%

Ethnikos Achna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

67%

Ethnikos Achna (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 118 matches

Ethnikos Achna away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.58 + Ethnikos Achna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ethnikos Achna attack 1.22 + Anorthosis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Anorthosis scores more

51%

level

24%

Ethnikos Achna scores more

25%

Anorthosis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Anorthosis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff