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Añorga vs Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vitoria
Vitoria
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga30%
×Draw27%
Vitoria44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.10
Vitoria
1.39

Vitoria creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 78 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Vitoria
1.37

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Vitoria
0.68

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
56%
Añorga or Vitoria
73%
Draw or Vitoria
70%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
12%
Vitoria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
67%
Añorga 2+ goals
30%
Añorga 3+ goals
10%
Vitoria 1+ goals
75%
Vitoria 2+ goals
40%
Vitoria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
41%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Vitoria defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vitoria attack 1.37 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Añorga scores more
30%
level
27%
Vitoria scores more
44%

Vitoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Añorga 0–2 Vitoria

Vitoria beat Añorga 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4 in Donostia-San Sebastián.