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Añorga vs Padura — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Padura
Padura
10/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga48%
×Draw25%
Padura27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.61
Padura
1.16

Añorga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Padura
0.90

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Padura
1.69

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Padura+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Padura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
73%
Añorga or Padura
75%
Draw or Padura
52%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
25%
Padura wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
80%
Añorga 2+ goals
48%
Añorga 3+ goals
22%
Padura 1+ goals
69%
Padura 2+ goals
32%
Padura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
63%
Padura (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Padura away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Padura defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Padura attack 0.90 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Añorga scores more
48%
level
25%
Padura scores more
27%

Añorga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Añorga vs Padura

Añorga and Padura drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4 in Donostia-San Sebastián.