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Añorga vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
4/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga44%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.47
Deportivo Alavés III
1.17

Añorga creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
70%
Añorga or Deportivo Alavés III
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
56%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
77%
Añorga 2+ goals
43%
Añorga 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Añorga scores more
44%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
30%

Añorga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Añorga 1–2 Deportivo Alavés III

Deportivo Alavés III beat Añorga 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4 in Donostia.