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Añorga vs Aretxabaleta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Aretxabaleta
Aretxabaleta
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Campo de Rezola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga46%
×Draw24%
Aretxabaleta30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.62
Aretxabaleta
1.25

Añorga creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Aretxabaleta
1.09

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Aretxabaleta
1.71

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Aretxabaleta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Aretxabaleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
70%
Añorga or Aretxabaleta
76%
Draw or Aretxabaleta
54%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
24%
Aretxabaleta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
80%
Añorga 2+ goals
48%
Añorga 3+ goals
22%
Aretxabaleta 1+ goals
71%
Aretxabaleta 2+ goals
36%
Aretxabaleta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
61%
Aretxabaleta (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Aretxabaleta away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Aretxabaleta defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

Aretxabaleta attack 1.09 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Añorga scores more
46%
level
24%
Aretxabaleta scores more
30%

Añorga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Añorga 1–2 Aretxabaleta

Aretxabaleta beat Añorga 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Rezola in Donostia.