Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Añorga vs Anaitasuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Añorga
Añorga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Anaitasuna
Anaitasuna
1/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga47%
×Draw25%
Anaitasuna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Añorga
1.56
Anaitasuna
1.15

Añorga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

creates per match

Añorga
1.53
Anaitasuna
0.89

allows per match

Añorga
1.41
Anaitasuna
1.58

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par
Anaitasuna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

Anaitasuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Añorga or draw
72%
Añorga or Anaitasuna
75%
Draw or Anaitasuna
53%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+
24%
Anaitasuna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals
79%
Añorga 2+ goals
46%
Añorga 3+ goals
21%
Anaitasuna 1+ goals
68%
Anaitasuna 2+ goals
32%
Anaitasuna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)
62%
Anaitasuna (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

Anaitasuna away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + Anaitasuna defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Anaitasuna attack 0.89 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Añorga scores more
47%
level
25%
Anaitasuna scores more
28%

Añorga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Añorga vs Anaitasuna

Añorga beat Anaitasuna 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4 in Donostia-San Sebastián.