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Annecy vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Reims
Reims
C. Billemaz 45'
A. Leautey 90'
9/13/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Annecy33%
×Draw27%
Reims40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.15
Reims
1.29

Reims creates 12% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 27 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Reims
1.04

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
60%
Annecy or Reims
73%
Draw or Reims
67%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
13%
Reims wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
68%
Annecy 2+ goals
32%
Annecy 3+ goals
11%
Reims 1+ goals
72%
Reims 2+ goals
37%
Reims 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
45%
Reims (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Reims attack 1.52 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Annecy scores more
33%
level
27%
Reims scores more
40%

Reims at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. EscalesAnnecyAnnecy · G
8.3

Match Events

13'
Thibault Delphis
16'
Clement Billemaz
23'
Ange Tia
42'
Norman Bassette
45+3'
Quentin Paris
45'
C. Billemaz
47'
Zabi
57'
H. Ibrahim← Zabi
57'
A. Salama← N. Bassette
62'
B. Toure← Q. Paris
67'
A. Larose← P. Venot
68'
T. Rowe← H. Koutoune
68'
R. Neelakandan← A. Hbouch
76'
M. Busi← M. Gbane
76'
T. Leoni← H. Sekine
82'
A. Drouhin← C. Billemaz
83'
Antoine Larose
86'
Matteo Veillon
86'
Maxime Busi
86'
A. Bojang← A. Tia
90'
A. Leautey

Possession

32%Annecy

Shots

6Annecy

Pass accuracy

41%Annecy

Statistics

AnnecyReims
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots15
5Corners7
19Fouls17
Shots
6Total Shots15
2On Target7
3Off Target4
1Blocked4
4Inside Box12
2Outside Box3
Passing
32%Possession68%
234Total Passes496
129Accurate Passes392
55%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls17
5Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

Ligue 2: Annecy 1–1 Reims

Annecy and Reims drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: C. Billemaz (45'), A. Leautey (90').

Reims controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.