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Annecy vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
9/30/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Annecy38%
×Draw29%
Paris FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.17
Paris FC
1.06

Annecy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 128 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
67%
Annecy or Paris FC
71%
Draw or Paris FC
62%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
16%
Paris FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
69%
Annecy 2+ goals
33%
Annecy 3+ goals
11%
Paris FC 1+ goals
65%
Paris FC 2+ goals
29%
Paris FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
54%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Annecy scores more
38%
level
29%
Paris FC scores more
33%

Annecy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Annecy 2–2 Paris FC

Annecy and Paris FC drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.