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Annecy vs Grenoble — Coupe de France 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grenoble
Grenobleadvanced
T. Rambaud 5' (pen)
Y. Diaby 79'
S. Diba 67'
11/28/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 128Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Annecy37%
×Draw23%
Grenoble41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.64
Grenoble
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Annecy
2.20
Grenoble
1.87

allows per match

Annecy
1.60
Grenoble
1.07

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
59%
Annecy or Grenoble
77%
Draw or Grenoble
63%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
18%
Grenoble wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
81%
Annecy 2+ goals
49%
Annecy 3+ goals
23%
Grenoble 1+ goals
82%
Grenoble 2+ goals
52%
Grenoble 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
47%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Grenoble away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 2.20 + Grenoble defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.64

Grenoble attack 1.87 + Annecy defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Annecy scores more
37%
level
23%
Grenoble scores more
41%

Grenoble at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
T. RambaudPenalty
13'
C. Makutungu
67'
S. Diba
79'
Y. Diaby
Annecy
Grenoble
Laurent Guyot
Manager: Laurent Guyot
Franck Rizzetto
Manager: Franck Rizzetto

Match Recap: Annecy vs Grenoble

Grenoble beat Annecy 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 28, 2025.

Goals: T. Rambaud (5' pen), S. Diba (67'), Y. Diaby (79').

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.