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Annecy vs Concarneau — Ligue 2 2018

Annecy
Annecy
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Concarneau
Concarneau
2/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Annecy45%
×Draw28%
Concarneau27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annecy
1.31
Concarneau
0.96

Annecy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

creates per match

Annecy
1.25
Concarneau
0.84

allows per match

Annecy
1.07
Concarneau
1.37

finishing

Annecy+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annecy ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Annecy or draw
73%
Annecy or Concarneau
72%
Draw or Concarneau
55%

Winning margin

Annecy wins by 2+
21%
Concarneau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Annecy 1+ goals
73%
Annecy 2+ goals
38%
Annecy 3+ goals
14%
Concarneau 1+ goals
62%
Concarneau 2+ goals
25%
Concarneau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Annecy (draw refunded)
62%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annecy at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 72 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annecy attack 1.25 + Concarneau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Concarneau attack 0.84 + Annecy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Annecy scores more
45%
level
28%
Concarneau scores more
27%

Annecy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Annecy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Annecy 0–3 Concarneau

Concarneau beat Annecy 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Annecy.